A Black Hat review is the one session in a capture where your team stops talking about itself. Small groups each play a specific competitor and build the strategy and solution that competitor is likely to bid. Done well, it changes your win themes. Done badly, it produces a slide with four logos on it and a feeling of having been thorough.
When it is worth doing
Black Hats take preparation and senior people's time. They earn it on larger, contested pursuits where you can name the likely bidders and at least one of them is strong. On a small task order with an unknown field, a lighter competitive assessment is enough. Hold it during capture, well before the RFP, while there is still time to act on what you learn.
Before the session
- Pick two to four competitors that can actually win. Include the incumbent if there is one.
- Assign one group per competitor and give each group a short dossier: past awards, known teammates, pricing behavior, key people, and how they have positioned themselves with this customer.
- Include teammates if you can. They often know a competitor better than you do.
- Bring your own current win themes and solution concept in writing. You will test them at the end.
In the room
Each group works as the competitor. What would they propose? Who would they team with? Where would they price? What would they say about us? That last question is the one people avoid and the one that matters most. Each group presents its competitor's likely bid, strengths and weaknesses included. Then the whole room turns back into your company and compares each competitor's story with yours.
What has to come out of it
- Revised win themes. If your themes did not change, either you were already perfect or the groups went easy on you.
- Ghosting themes: the points you will make, without naming anyone, that raise doubt about a competitor's approach where it is weak.
- Counters for where the competitor is strong and you are not. Sometimes the counter is a teammate. Sometimes it is a no-bid.
- A capture plan with the competitive analysis finished, and action items with owners and dates.
How it goes wrong
- The groups describe the competitor instead of bidding as the competitor. Description is research. The exercise is role-play.
- Nobody will say what the competitor would say about you. Assign it explicitly.
- It happens after the RFP drops. By then you can change wording but not position.
- The output is a briefing instead of changes to the capture plan.
The test is simple. Put last month's win themes next to this month's. If a Black Hat happened in between and they read the same, run it again.